The initial "hot phase" is characterized by frequent changes ~ more swelling, less swelling, back & forth like that. Once the frequent changes stop, and the "swings" in swelling get smaller, then there is a period where pretty much nothing happens. After that period, there’s a time when it’s only improving, but things don’t happen rapidly. Finally, once there have been NO changes for about six months, the doctor will probably diagnose "cold phase." That must be diagnosed in retrospect ~ you can’t really tell from day one that it’s the cold phase, because of the other phases where things may happen "occasionally."